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Theos Quantum Θ mark

Theos Threat RadarLIVE

The window is closing.

One radar for the post-quantum threat landscape: actively exploited vulnerabilities, the quantum hardware race, NIST standards status, and every compliance deadline that decides when your cryptography expires. Computed live — every figure cited.

NIST IR 8547 (draft) · RSA & ECC deprecated after 2030

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DAYS
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HRS
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MIN
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SEC

… of the migration window already elapsed since Aug 13, 2024.

Check your readiness The Quantum Window

Quantum-compute & standards centers · drag to spin

◆ HARVEST NOW · DECRYPT LATER

10–25+ yrs

Secrecy lifetime of health records, financial archives, IP and state data — long enough to outlive the classical crypto protecting them today. CISA, NSA and NIST jointly warn that adversaries are collecting ciphertext now to decrypt on Q-Day.

Source · CISA/NSA/NIST Quantum-Readiness factsheet (2023)

◆ SIGNATURES · SHOR

RSA · ECDSA · EdDSA · DH

Every widely deployed public-key scheme — TLS handshakes, code signing, document signatures, PKI — is broken by Shor's algorithm on a cryptographically relevant quantum computer.

Source · NIST IR 8547 (draft)

◆ SYMMETRIC · GROVER

AES-128 → ~64-bit

Grover's algorithm halves effective symmetric security. AES-256 and SHA-384 remain safe margins — which is why CNSA 2.0 mandates them alongside ML-KEM and ML-DSA.

Source · NSA CNSA 2.0 advisory

Advisory feed

What attackers are exploiting right now.

Cryptography fails through implementation long before Q-Day. These feeds pull from the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog and the GitHub Advisory Database.

CISA · Known Exploited Vulnerabilities

LIVE · HOURLY

Cryptography-relevant advisories

LIVE · HOURLY

NIST PQC standards · status board

  • ML-KEM (Kyber)

    FIPS 203 · Key encapsulation

    FINAL

    Aug 2024

  • ML-DSA (Dilithium)

    FIPS 204 · Digital signatures

    FINAL

    Aug 2024

  • SLH-DSA (SPHINCS+)

    FIPS 205 · Hash-based signatures

    FINAL

    Aug 2024

  • FN-DSA (FALCON)

    FIPS 206 · Compact lattice signatures

    DRAFT

    In progress

  • HQC

    Backup KEM · code-based

    SELECTED

    Mar 2025

Quantum hardware race · physical qubits

Curated from public disclosures · reviewed 2026-07. Physical qubits track the trend — error rates and logical qubits decide the real timeline.

  • Atom Computing · 1,180-qubit neutral-atom array

    1,180

    announced Oct 2023

  • IBM · Condor

    1,121

    unveiled Dec 2023

  • IBM · Heron r2

    156

    error-focused tuning

  • Google · Willow

    105

    below-threshold error correction, Dec 2024

  • USTC · Zuchongzhi 3.0

    105

    superconducting

  • Quantinuum · H2

    56

    trapped-ion, high fidelity

  • IonQ · Forte

    36

    #AQ 36 algorithmic qubits

Compliance countdown

The deadlines are already published.

Regulators are not waiting for Q-Day. Every date below comes from a public policy document.

EU DORA

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2025-01-17 · EU

Digital Operational Resilience Act applies — EU financial entities must manage ICT & third-party risk, including cryptographic posture.

NSA CNSA 2.0 · new acquisitions

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2027-01-01 · US · NSS

NSA timeline: new National Security System acquisitions should support CNSA 2.0 (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SHA-2/384+) from 2027.

NIST IR 8547 · RSA/ECC deprecated

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2030-12-31 · US · Federal

NIST draft transition guidance: 112-bit-strength classical public-key crypto (RSA-2048, ECDSA P-256) deprecated after 2030.

NSA CNSA 2.0 · full adoption

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2033-01-01 · US · NSS

NSA target for National Security Systems to have completed transition to CNSA 2.0 algorithms.

NIST IR 8547 · RSA/ECC disallowed

—

2035-12-31 · US · Federal

NIST draft transition guidance: classical public-key algorithms disallowed for federal use after 2035.

How we got here

Three decades from theory to deadline.

  1. 1994

    Peter Shor publishes the algorithm that breaks RSA and ECC on a large quantum computer.

  2. 2016

    NIST opens the global post-quantum cryptography standardization competition.

  3. 2019

    Google announces quantum supremacy on a 53-qubit processor (Sycamore).

  4. 2022

    NIST selects CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, SPHINCS+ and FALCON for standardization.

  5. 2023

    IBM Condor passes 1,000 physical qubits; Atom Computing announces a 1,180-qubit array.

  6. 2024

    NIST finalizes FIPS 203, 204 and 205 (Aug 13). Google Willow demonstrates below-threshold error correction.

  7. 2025

    NIST selects HQC as backup KEM; FN-DSA (FIPS 206) drafting continues; CNSA 2.0 clock running.

  8. 2030

    NIST draft guidance deprecates RSA-2048 and ECDSA P-256 for federal systems.

The Quantum Window

36% of the world's PQC migration window is already gone.

YOU ARE HERE
2024 · NIST PQC standards final2030 · RSA & ECC deprecated

Attackers are harvesting encrypted data today to decrypt on Q-Day. The window is closing — start now.

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The Quantum Threat Brief

Standards drift, deadline changes, and what actually matters — in your inbox when something moves. No noise.